Obamas plan i Afghanistan hænger på Pakistan

Nøglen for USA og NATO-styrkerne til at vinde krigen mod taleban og al Qaeda i Afghanistan er 'efterretninger'

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Nøglen for USA og NATO-styrkerne til at vinde krigen mod taleban og al Qaeda i Afghanistan er 'efterretninger'. Og den eneste aktør, der kan vinde krigen om efterretninger for USA, er den pakistanske efterretningstjeneste ISI. Det skriver den amerikanske analyse-virksomhed Stratfor i en kommentar til Obamas beslutning om at sende flere tropper til Afghanistan: "In the case of Afghanistan, the United States has far more sophisticated intelligence-gathering tools than it did in Vietnam. Nevertheless, the basic principle remains: An intelligence tool can be understood, taken into account and evaded. By contrast, deep penetration on multiple levels by human intelligence cannot be avoided." [...] "The heart of Obama’s strategy lies not in the surge, but rather in turning the war over to the Afghans. As in Vietnam, any simplistic model of loyalties doesn’t work. There are Afghans sufficiently motivated to form the core of an effective army. As in Vietnam, the problem is that this army will contain large numbers of Taliban sympathizers; there is no way to prevent this. The Taliban is not stupid: It has and will continue to move its people into as many key positions as possible." [...] "The only entity that could conceivably penetrate the Taliban and remain secure is the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). This would give the Americans and Afghans knowledge of Taliban plans and deployments. This would diminish the ability of the Taliban to evade attacks..." [...] "Pakistan is important not only as the Cambodia of this war, the place where insurgents go to regroup and resupply, but also as a key element of the solution to the intelligence war. It is all about Pakistan. And that makes Obama’s plan difficult to execute."